CEH scientists have delivered an exciting new hydrological seasonal forecast demonstrator for the water sector in Europe.

The work was delivered as part of the EDgE project which puts stakeholders at the heart of research, developing climate services to meet the information needs of European users in the water sector, as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) programme. EDgE has produced new climate projections and seasonal forecasts by combining climate data and state-of-the-art hydrological modelling to deliver a demonstration water-oriented information system implemented through a web application.

Screengrab from the EDgE Seasonal Forecast Map Viewer

The new interactive Seasonal Forecasts Map Viewer allows users to explore this information to understand how it could be used in decision-making.

At the moment the hydrological seasonal forecasts are a proof of concept and are available as 'hindcasts', i.e. they are forecasts of the past and are available for each month from January 1993 to December 2011. The forecasts are provided as indicators of streamflow, soil moisture and groundwater recharge across Europe.

The indicators were developed with water sector end-users at EDgE project Focus Group meetings. Indicators were produced by running multiple climate forecasts, downscaled to a 5km grid, through four hydrological models to produce an ensemble of indicators to capture uncertainties in the modelling process. The full ensemble can be explored and results downloaded through the Seasonal Forecast Map Viewer.

This video (below) produced for the project by CEH researchers Lucy Barker and Katie Smith shows you how to explore and download the EDgE Seasonal Forecasts.

Matt Fry of the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, who is leading the interface development, said, "The interactive nature of the interface, co-designed with our Focus Groups, allows users to really explore a complex multi-model hydrological forecast in a way that hasn’t been possible before."

Gwyn Rees, CEH’s Science Area Lead for Water Resources, leads the EDgE project. He said, "This is an exciting new capability both for large scale hydrological forecasting through a multi-model ensemble, and for making this complex information accessible for users."

"The interactive nature of the interface allows users to really explore a complex multi-model hydrological forecast in a way that hasn’t been possible before." Matt Fry, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Explore the forecasts here and watch out for future developments.

EDgE is funded by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Copernicus Climate Change Service. The project involves a number of partners including the Environment Agency in the UK who lead the stakeholder engagement aspects of the project and Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Germany who lead the hydrological modelling underpinning the EDgE Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Projections.

Additional information

EDge project news: New EDgE Hydrological Seasonal Forecasts

Staff page of Matt Fry, CEH

Staff page of Lucy Barker, CEH

Staff page of Katie Smith, CEH

Staff page of Gwyn Rees, CEH

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